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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Key Support at 1.0850
The EUR/USD pair is testing critical support levels as traders await ECB policy decision.
Germany November construction PMI 45.2 vs 42.8 prior
Prior 42.8This at least marks some improvement in German construction activity, though continuing to keep in contraction territory. That said, civil engineering activity is seen improving for the fourth time in six months and employment conditions actually rose for the first time in over three-and-a-half years. HCOB notes that:“The civil engineering sector is still sputtering but looks set to gradually pick up speed. Since the middle of this year, infrastructure projects have been moving forward for a month or two at a time, only to then hit reverse. In November, the sector was back on track for expansion. The more planned public infrastructure projects get underway in the coming months, the longer this sector is likely to stay in growth territory. “The recession in the construction sector eased somewhat in November. This is almost exclusively thanks to civil engineering, where the index made a sharp jump from contraction to expansion. Public infrastructure projects, like the renewal of rail lines, are playing an important role here. Residential and commercial construction, on the other hand, remain stuck in the economic trough, especially housing, which is particularly deep. The increase in building permits reported by the Federal Statistical Office suggests this sector could pick up again somewhat next year. In the short term, though, an accelerated decline in order intakes can be observed. That lines up with the fact that construction companies as a whole are predominantly pessimistic about their activity in the coming year. “Stagflation still rules the construction sector, as costs have been rising steadily since spring and subcontractors’ invoices are climbing higher too. At the same time, construction activity is declining. One explanation is probably the shortage of skilled workers, which, according to the Association of German Engineers (VDI), continues to persist, especially among civil engineers. On top of that, most building material prices have risen further from already high levels this year. The slump in the broader construction sector can only be overcome if the economy as a whole returns to sustainable growth, improving the purchasing power of consumers and businesses alike.” This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.
Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Eyes $2,100 Resistance
Gold prices continue to climb amid safe-haven demand and weakening dollar.
Switzerland November seasonally adjusted unemployment rate 3.0% vs 3.0% expected
Prior 3.0%The Swiss jobless rate holds steady at 3.0%, keeping steadier in November. However, the overall trend continues to point to gradual softening in labour market conditions and that will keep the SNB on their toes especially with the eventual need to pivot to negative interest rates down the road. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.
USD/JPY Rises on Strong US Economic Data
The dollar strengthens against the yen following better-than-expected employment figures.
What are the main events for today?
In the European session, we don't have much on the agenda other than a couple of low-tier releases like the Eurozone Retail Sales and the Swiss unemployment rate that won't change anything for the respective central banks. In the American session, the main highlight will be the release of the US Jobless Claims figures. Initial Claims are expected at 220K vs 216K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1961K vs 1960K prior. The data continues to point to a "low firing, low hiring" labour market with no notable deterioration. This is the last important labour market report we get before the FOMC decision on Wednesday where the Fed is expected to cut by 25 bps. Unless we get big surprises in the data today, it's unlikely that it will change anything at this point. What comes next will depend on the Fed's forward guidance and the following NFP and CPI reports. Central bank speakers:09:00 GMT/04:00 ET - ECB's Kocher (neutral - voter)12:45 GMT/07:45 ET - BoE's Mann (hawkish - voter)13:00 GMT/08:00 ET - ECB's Cipollone (neutral - voter)15:00 GMT/10:00 ET - ECB's Lane (neutral - voter)18:00 GMT/13:00 ET - ECB's de Guindos (neutral - voter) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.
GBP/USD: Bank of England Rate Decision Preview
Markets anticipate BoE will hold rates steady amid mixed economic signals.
Crude Oil Prices Surge on Supply Concerns
WTI crude jumps 3% as OPEC+ announces production cuts extension.
Reminder: There will be no US non-farm payrolls release this week
As mentioned earlier in the week, the most significant point of this ordeal is that it means the Fed will not have an official labour market report to work with before their next policy decision on 10 December. Now, is it just all a ruse by the BLS in timing it so as to not reflect "better" numbers that might get in the way of a Fed rate cut next week? With the ongoing Trump politicisation of the Fed and the stats office, it wouldn't be the most surprising thing.But as noted before this, the BLS did mention that "the delay in reporting has seen the establishment survey collection rate move up to a higher-than-usual 80.2% as businesses self-reported electronically during the shutdown". Low survey collection rates have accounted for major revisions to payrolls data in the past, so just keep that in mind.In any case, traders are still pricing in ~85% odds of a Fed rate cut for December and that reads as a given at this point. So, one can reasonably expect Powell & co. to deliver one more rate cut in wrapping up the year before markets break for Christmas and the holiday season.That means the only relevant US labour market data releases remaining this week will be from today. That being the Challenger job cuts and the weekly initial jobless claims. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.
China President Xi says will expand domestic demand in 15th five-year plan
Positive comments from Xi for the China trade and China proxy trade (eg, a tailwind for AUD). Will expand domestic demand in 15th five-year plan ---Headlines via Reuters:China’s President Xi, in meeting with Macron: Both China and France are far-sighted, responsible and independent major countries.China’s President Xi, in meeting with Macron: China and France should uphold multilateralism.China’s President Xi, in meeting with Macron: China is willing to eliminate interferences and stick to equal dialogues with France.Xi and Macron attend agreement-signing ceremony.China’s Xi: Had friendly, candid talks with Macron.China’s Xi: We agree to enhance political mutual trust.China’s Xi: We should support each other on core interests.China’s Xi: We agree to expand practical cooperation.China’s Xi: We agree to consolidate cooperation on airspace and nuclear energy.China’s Xi: We agree to push forward balanced development of trade ties.China’s Xi: We will expand two-way investment.China’s Xi: We will strengthen strategic coordination.China’s Xi: On Ukraine, China supports all efforts conducive to peace.China’s Xi: It is hoped that all parties will reach a fair, lasting and binding agreement through dialogue and negotiation — a peace agreement accepted by all parties.China’s Xi: China will provide $100 million in aid to Palestinians.China’s Xi: China will expand domestic demand in the 15th Five-Year Plan. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
investingLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Trump still pushing for Nvidia H200 chip to China
Trump to decide whether to provide licences to allow Nvidia to export the H200 to ChinaANZ sees oil surplus capping Brent below $65 in early 2026, rising toward $70 laterJapan’s 30-yr JGB sale draws highest demand since 2019 as bid-cover surgesThe headline about what BoJ Ueda said is missing the much bigger point (hint, rate hikes)JPMorgan upgrades China to overweight, sees 19% upside for MSCI China into 2026Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says current interest rates are still accommodativeJapan's Chief Cabinet Sec. says concerned over rapid, one-sided yen movesCNY and CNH traders, why today's reference rate saw the biggest gap in nearly 3 yearsSGX rejects report of talks to buy Cboe Australia after AFR acquisition claimPBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0733 (vs. estimate at 7.0554)Australian October trade balance a surplus of 4385mn (expected 4219mn)Tesla UK sales drop 19% as Chinese EV rivals surge and market demand coolsOil traders note: Maduro confirms phone contact with Trump, hint of diplomatic thawYuan nears 7 as US–China thaw lifts sentiment, but PBOC slows pace of appreciationChevron sets $18–19bn 2026 capex, prioritising US shale and Guyana offshore growthWall Street cautions Trump, Hassett pick seen risking Fed credibility, raising long yieldsMorgan Stanley sees strong 2026 M&A and IPO wave, expects more bank consolidationJPMorgan: labour slump warrants near-term Fed cuts, but sticky inflation limits easinginvestingLive Americas FX news wrap 3 Dec: ADP employment report weaker than expectationsTrump avoids questions about China and NvidiaUS stocks close marginally higherTrump says Witkoff meeting with Putin 'reasonably good'. Trump adds no substantive detailsThe yen weakened in early Tokyo trading, with USD/JPY pushing above 155.50 before easing after a strong long-end JGB auction. Japanese government bonds initially sold off across the 5-, 10-, 20- and 30-year sectors, but recovered much of the move after the 30-year sale delivered its highest bid-to-cover since 2019 and a markedly tighter tail, signalling resilient demand for duration. The 30-year yield fell to 3.385%, down 3.5 bps, helping steady broader sentiment after recent volatility.Bank of Japan Governor Ueda told parliament that monetary conditions remain accommodative, even after recent adjustments, but stressed uncertainty about how far the BOJ can ultimately raise rates given the wide range of estimates for Japan’s neutral rate. His comments offered little guidance on the terminal level but reinforced that further tightening soon remains possible, but not yet assured.The Australian dollar edged higher both before and after data showed household spending jumped by the most in nearly two years in October. The ABS said discounting drove a 1.7% rise in goods spending, while services increased 0.8%, supporting a firmer domestic demand backdrop.In geopolitics and tech, the Financial Times reported that President Trump is preparing a high-level meeting to decide whether to allow Nvidia to export its H200 chip to China. Nvidia is likely to welcome the move. The FT added that the administration is not planning major new export controls, easing some industry concerns around US–China tech policy. Asia-Pac stocks:Japan (Nikkei 225) %Hong Kong (Hang Seng) % Shanghai Composite %Australia (S&P/ASX 200) % This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
Japan’s 30-yr JGB sale draws highest demand since 2019 as bid-cover surges
Japan’s 30-year government bond auction drew its strongest demand in six years on Wednesday, signalling solid investor appetite even as long-term yields hover near multi-decade highs. The Ministry of Finance reported a bid-to-cover ratio of 4.04, sharply higher than 3.12 at the previous auction in November and the highest since 2019.The auction also produced a much smaller tail of 0.09 yen, compared with 0.27 yen last month, indicating investors were willing to accept yields closer to the market clearing level and suggesting smoother price discovery.The robust outcome points to renewed demand from both domestic institutions and overseas buyers, who see value at the long end of Japan’s yield curve despite the Bank of Japan’s ongoing policy-normalisation debate. Strong demand may help stabilise long-term rates after recent volatility driven by speculation over BOJ tightening.---Bid-to-cover (BTC) Bid-to-cover measures how many bids were submitted relative to the amount of bonds the government is selling. Higher BTC = stronger demand. Example: A BTC of 4.0 means investors tried to buy four times more bonds than were available. Auction tail The tail is the difference between the average accepted price and the lowest winning price in the auction. Smaller tail = smoother auction and stronger demand. Larger tail = weaker demand or more pricing uncertainty. ---And, the TL;DR for impressing potential partners at the pub later tonight:BTC: how oversubscribed the auction was. Tail: how tight and smooth the pricing was. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
Australian October trade balance a surplus of 4385mn (expected 4219mn)
Australian Household Spending in October 2025 +1.3% m/mexpected +0.6%, prior +0.3%+5.6% y/yexpected +4.6%, prior +5.1%---Trade Balance in October 2025 AUD4385mnexpected 4219mn, prior 3938mn Imports +2.0% m/mprior +1.8%non monetary gold jumped (non-monetary gold is all gold traded or held for jewellery, investment or industry, excluding central-bank reserve holdings; more on this below if needed)Exports +3.4% m/mprior +7.6%iron ore exports lifted, accounted for 2.3%---That jump for household spending is another reason not to expect any Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate cuts any time soon. AUD/USD had been rising prior to the data release and its holding at session highs above 0.6605. For those looking beyond the headline, the Australian Bureau of Statistics have this nugget:retailers had to offer discounts to get traffic in "promotional events saw households spend more on clothing, footwear, furnishings and electronics following months of weaker spending in these categories"---Non-monetary gold is simply gold that is held, traded or used for purposes other than central-bank reserves. In other words, it’s all gold except the gold that governments and central banks hold as part of official foreign-exchange reserves.What non-monetary gold meansNon-monetary gold includes:Jewellery goldInvestment gold (bars, coins held by private investors, ETFs)Gold for industrial or electronic useGold traded by dealers, refiners or banksGold exported/imported for fabrication or investmentIt is treated just like any other commodity in trade and national-accounts statistics.What it is NOTIt excludes:Official central-bank gold holdingsGold that is part of a country’s recognised foreign-exchange reservesThat category is called monetary gold. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
Tesla UK sales drop 19% as Chinese EV rivals surge and market demand cools
Tesla’s UK sales dropped sharply in November, with registrations falling 19% year-on-year to 3,784 units, according to preliminary data from research group New AutoMotive. The decline follows an even steeper halving of sales in October and reflects Tesla’s continued loss of momentum in Europe as Chinese EV makers, led by BYD, expand rapidly with cheaper, newer models. BYD’s UK registrations more than tripled last month.Analysts say Tesla is struggling to draw buyers in a more competitive EV landscape, where legacy automakers and Chinese rivals are offering more compelling price points and upgraded designs. The brand has also faced reputational headwinds linked to CEO Elon Musk’s political profile, contributing to erosion in market share.Across the broader UK car market, total new registrations slipped 6.3% year-on-year to 146,786 units in November, highlighting softer demand heading into year-end. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
investingLive Americas FX news wrap 3 Dec: ADP employment report weaker than expectations
US stocks close marginally higherTrump says Witkoff meeting with Putin 'reasonably good'. Trump adds no substantive detailsTomorrow in the US the Challenger job cuts and US unemployment claimsCrude oil futures settle at $58.95Gasparino: Wall Street does not like Hassett.Rep Stefanik: Calls House Speaker an ineffective leader who is losing control over the GOPEuropean stock indices close mixed. German DAX and UK's FTSE 100 close lowerTreasury's Lavorgna: Expecting more growth in 2026 driven by measures from Trump tax actEIA crude oil inventories build of 0.574M versus a drawdown of -0.821 million estimateMicrosoft: We did not lower our AI sales quotasCommerce Sec. Howard Lutnick: Prices don't move unless tariffs are above 50%US ISM nonmanufacturing PMI 52.6 versus 52.1 estimateUS S&P global services PMI for November 54.1 versus 55.0 preliminaryCanada S&P services PMI 44.3 versus 50.5 last monthTreasury Secretary Bessent: Trump has normalized the idea of a 15-20% tariffUS September industrial production 0.1% versus 0.0% expectedMicrosoft lowers AI sales quotas.USDINR Technicals: The upside run in USDINR continues. Stretches toward the Fib extensionECB'sLagarde: Growth in economic activity should benefit from increased household spendingUS import prices 0.0% versus 0.1% expected. Export prices 0.0% versus 0.1% expectedADP National employment for November -32K vs 10K est.Stocks are higher, yields are lower and the USD is lower. How about the technicals?investingLive European FX news wrap: Swiss CPI misses again, USD falls as yields retreatThe USD is closing lower vs all the major currencies with the GBPUSD the biggest mover. The USD is still lower vs the CAD but only by -0.12%. A snapshot of the changes vs the major currencies shows:EUR: -0.38%JPY -0.40%GBP -1.04%CHF -0.37%CAD -0.12%AUD -0.59%NZD -0.66%The move lower was helped by weaker than expected ADP employment numbers. ADP reported a weaker-than-expected labor print for November, showing a 32,000 decline in private payrolls versus expectations for a modest gain. The prior month was revised up to 47,000, but November saw broad weakness across both goods-producing (-19K) and services (-13K) sectors. Small businesses remained under significant strain with a 120,000 job loss, marking negative readings in six of the past seven months, while medium and large firms added 51K and 39K, respectively. Industry detail showed strength in education (+30K) and leisure/hospitality (+13K), contrasted by notable declines in manufacturing (-18K), information (-20K), and professional/business services (-26K). Wage growth indicators continued to cool, with job changers seeing pay rise 4.4% (down from 4.5%) and job stayers rising 6.3% (down from 6.7%). Overall, the report pointed to a softening labor market, particularly among small firms and cyclical sectors.In other data releases:The U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI edged up to 52.6 in November from 52.4, slightly above expectations and signaling continued, modest expansion in the services sector. Business activity improved to 54.5, and employment strengthened to 48.9, its best reading since May—though still below the 50 contraction line. New orders softened notably to 52.9, the weakest since September, while prices paid eased sharply to 65.4 from 70.0, suggesting some cooling in input inflation pressures. Other components showed broad stabilization, with backlogs, export orders, and imports all improving from the prior month. Respondent commentary pointed to persistent tariff-related uncertainty, mixed economic conditions, margin pressures, affordability challenges, and uneven demand across industries, though pockets of optimism remain as supply chains stabilize and some sectors finish the year with solid activity.U.S. industrial production in September rose 0.1%, matching a modest improvement but coming in just above expectations, while prior-month figures were revised notably lower, painting a softer underlying picture. Manufacturing output was flat on the month after an upward revision the prior month, underscoring uneven momentum across factory activity. Capacity utilization held at 75.9%, well below the 77.3% expected, reflecting continued slack in industrial capacity despite stable headline output. Looking through the monthly noise, industrial production increased at a 1.1% annual rate in the third quarter, though the downward revisions to August suggest the sector entered the fall period with less strength than previously reported. Overall, the report showed a mixed performance: modest growth in September offset by weaker historical data and continued underuse of manufacturing capacity.The major stock indices close marginally higher led by the Dow industrial average with a gain of 0.80%. The broader S&P index was up by 0.30% while the NASDAQ index was up a marginal 0.17%.In the US debt market, yields are lower in reaction to the weaker ADP report 2-year yield 3.485%, -3.0 basis points5 year yield 3.629%, -3.0 basis points10 year yield 4.063%, -2.5 basis points30 year yield 4.728%, -1.2 basis pointsCrude oil is higher by about $0.50 at $59.11. Gold is up $3.60 at $4209.37. The point rose an additional $2200.to $93,510. On Monday, the low price reached $83,814. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
Economic calendar in Asia Thursday, December 4, 2025 - Australian trade data
We get the first indications of Australian Q4 2025 trade data with the October numbers today. While they are marked as being of high importance I'm not expecting the release to impact too much on the AUD and other Australian markets. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
Tomorrow in the US the Challenger job cuts and US unemployment claims
Tomorrow in the US session, the Challenger job cuts will be released. During most months it is a prelude to the jobs report but because of the shutdown, there will be no jobs report until December 15 after the FOMC rate decision on December 10. Nevertheless like the ADP report, it will give some indication of the US job situation.Also to be released will be the unemployment claims. They are up-to-date and are expected to come in at 219K versus 216K last week.Below is a list of other economic releases in the European and US session:3:00 am CHF: Unemployment Rate (Fcst 3.0%, Prev 3.0%)3:30 am CHF: Manufacturing PMI (Fcst 48.9, Prev 48.2)4:30 am GBP: Construction PMI (Fcst 44.5, Prev 44.1)5:00 am EUR: Retail Sales m/m (Fcst 0.0%, Prev -0.1%)Tentative EUR: French 10-yr Bond Auction (Prior 3.43% | 2.1)7:30 am USD: Challenger Job Cuts y/y (Prev 175.3%)7:45 am GBP: MPC Member Mann Speaks8:30 am USD: Unemployment Claims (Fcst 219K, Prev 216K)10:00 am CAD: Ivey PMI (Fcst 53.6, Prev 52.4) This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
Gasparino: Wall Street does not like Hassett.
Charlie Gasparino is X'ing:Despite the headline, Hassett has extended his lead on Polymarkets. The number was about 67% yesterday. Number 2 on the list is Kevin Warsh. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
Rep Stefanik: Calls House Speaker an ineffective leader who is losing control over the GOP
Republican representative Elise Stefanik, an ally to Pres Trump is criticizing House Speaker Mike Johnson:He is an ineffective leader who is losing control over the GOP conference heading into the midterm electionsHe certainly wouldn't have the votes to be speaker if a roll call vote was made tomorrow.Believes that a majority of the Republicans would vote for new leadership. It is widespread.Republican Matt Van Epps won Tuesday’s special election in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District, defeating Democrat Aftyn Behn by roughly nine points in a race that drew national attention. Although the GOP held the seat, the margin was far narrower than expected—Donald Trump carried the district by more than 20 points in 2024, and former Representative Mark Green had won by a similar margin. This substantial Democratic overperformance has raised eyebrows, suggesting potential vulnerability for Republicans heading into the 2026 midterms. The contest became a test of voter sentiment, attracting significant outside spending and high-profile support. While Republicans avoided losing a traditionally safe district, the result serves as a warning sign that they may face tighter races even in strongholds, whereas Democrats may feel increasingly emboldened to compete more aggressively across the map.The problem for the Democrats is the leadership. Who will step up. The problem for the Republicans is has the sheen come off Pres. Trump despite the arguments from Trump ally that it is the speaker Someone has to be blamed and it is Mike Johnson. I would prefer both sides coming off the extremes, move in the middle and unite vs divide. Then let the policy fall where it falls without being an "us vs them" but instead what is good for all of America to move forward. The best teams, are united teams. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
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